The Demographic Structure of Indian Society — Malthus, Transition and India's Population

How many people live in a society, how fast their numbers change, and how they are divided by age, sex, place and literacy shape almost every other social question — from jobs and schools to marriage and old-age care. This chapter introduces demography, the systematic study of population, with its basic measures; two classic theories, Thomas Robert Malthus's pessimistic argument and the theory of demographic transition; and the main features of India's population: its growth over the twentieth century, its young age structure, its worrying sex ratio, its literacy and rural-urban divides, and the history of population policy. The paper tests the definitions exactly, so learn what each rate is "per".

Demography and Its Basic Measures

Demography is the systematic study of population; the word comes from the Greek demos (people) and graphein (to describe). The book distinguishes formal demography, which is primarily concerned with measuring and analysing the components of population change — births, deaths and migration — using mathematical methods, from population studies or social demography, which examine the wider social, economic and political causes and consequences of population patterns. Demographic data — above all the census, conducted in India every ten years — are essential for planning, because a government cannot plan schools, hospitals or jobs without knowing how many people need them and where.

The measures the paper asks for — note what each is "per"
MeasureDefinition
Birth rateNumber of live births per 1,000 population in a given area during a given period (usually a year)
Death rateNumber of deaths per 1,000 population in a given area during a given period
Rate of natural increase (growth rate)The difference between the birth rate and the death rate
Fertility rateNumber of live births per 1,000 women in the child-bearing age group, usually taken as 15 to 49 years
Infant mortality rateNumber of deaths of babies before the age of one year per 1,000 live births
Maternal mortality rateNumber of women who die in childbirth per 1,00,000 live births
Sex ratio (as measured in India)Number of females per 1,000 males in a given area at a given time
Dependency ratioThe ratio of the dependent population (children below 15 and the elderly above 64) to the working-age population (15 to 64)
⚠️ Per 1,000 people, per 1,000 live births, per 1,00,000 live births
Birth and death rates are per 1,000 population; the infant mortality rate is per 1,000 live births; the maternal mortality rate is per 1,00,000 live births; the fertility rate is per 1,000 women aged 15–49. Distractors swap these denominators, so fix them together rather than one by one.

Two Theories — Malthus and the Demographic Transition

The English political economist Thomas Robert Malthus argued in his Essay on the Principle of Population (1798) that human population tends to grow much faster than the means of subsistence. Population, he said, grows in geometric progression (2, 4, 8, 16, 32…) while agricultural production can grow only in arithmetic progression (2, 4, 6, 8, 10…), so prosperity can be maintained only by controlling population growth. Malthus believed there were "positive checks" — famines, diseases and wars, which raise the death rate — and that people could adopt "preventive checks" — postponing marriage and practising sexual abstinence or celibacy — to lower the birth rate.

Malthus's predictions were not borne out by the European experience. From the late nineteenth century, birth rates in Europe began to decline, and food production rose sharply because of technological change. Critics also argued that poverty and starvation were caused not by population growth but by the unequal distribution of economic resources — a point made by liberal as well as Marxist scholars. The theory of demographic transition offers a different account: population growth is linked to the overall level of economic development, and societies pass through three basic stages.

The three stages of the demographic transition
StageBirth and death ratesGrowth
1. Underdeveloped, technologically backward societyBoth highLow — the two rates nearly cancel
2. Transitional stageDeath rate falls (better disease control, public health, nutrition); birth rate stays high for a timeVery high — the "population explosion"
3. Developed societyBoth lowLow again
🎯 Why the middle stage explodes
Death rates respond quickly to medicine and sanitation, which can be introduced from outside within a few years. Birth rates depend on social practices — age at marriage, the value placed on children, the security that sons are expected to provide — and these change slowly. The lag between the two falls is the population explosion.

India's Population — Growth, Age, Sex Ratio, Literacy and Policy

  • Growth: before 1921 India's population grew slowly, held back by famines and epidemics. The decade 1911–21 saw a fall, because of the influenza epidemic of 1918–19. After 1921 the death rate declined steadily with better control of famine and disease, while the birth rate fell much more slowly, so growth accelerated after independence and was highest in the decades after 1951 — India's own transitional stage.
  • Age structure: India has a young population, with a large share below working age, though the share of the elderly is rising as life expectancy improves; states differ widely, with Kerala's population older than that of states where fertility remains high.
  • The demographic dividend: when the working-age share rises and the dependency ratio falls, a society can gain economically — but only if the additional workers are educated and find productive employment. Without that, a large young population becomes a burden rather than a dividend.
  • Literacy: literacy has risen steadily, but it varies sharply by gender, region and social group, and these gaps affect health, fertility and access to work.
  • Rural and urban: most Indians still live in villages, but the urban share has been rising, as agriculture absorbs fewer people and towns offer work, education and some anonymity from caste-based restrictions.

The sex ratio is the most worrying feature. Biologically, women tend to have a slight survival advantage, so in most societies women slightly outnumber men; India's sex ratio, however, has been unfavourable to women and declined over most of the twentieth century — from 972 females per 1,000 males in 1901 to a low point in the 1990s, before recovering to 943 in 2011. The decline in the child sex ratio is especially alarming. The book links it to the preference for sons, to neglect of girl children, and to sex-selective abortion made possible by modern medical technology, which the law prohibits. It also notes a pattern that defeats the easy explanation: some of the lowest child sex ratios are found in relatively prosperous regions, so the problem cannot be put down to poverty alone.

Population policy. India was among the first countries to announce an explicit population policy: the National Family Planning Programme began in 1952, aiming to slow population growth through birth control and to improve public health. During the Emergency (1975–76) the programme turned coercive, with sterilisation targets pursued through pressure and force; the backlash discredited it, and after the Emergency it was renamed the National Family Welfare Programme, with a stress on voluntary methods and on broader goals such as maternal and child health.

Key takeaways

  • Formal demography measures births, deaths and migration mathematically; population studies examine their social causes and consequences.
  • Infant mortality is per 1,000 live births, maternal mortality per 1,00,000 live births; India measures the sex ratio as females per 1,000 males.
  • Malthus (1798): population grows geometrically, food arithmetically; positive checks raise deaths, preventive checks lower births.
  • Demographic transition: high-high, then falling deaths with high births (population explosion), then low-low.
  • India's population fell in 1911–21 after the 1918–19 influenza epidemic and grew fastest in the decades after 1951.
  • The declining child sex ratio reflects son preference and sex-selective abortion, and is not explained by poverty alone.
  • The National Family Planning Programme began in 1952; after the coercion of the Emergency it became the National Family Welfare Programme.

Practice questions (8)

Attempt each one before opening the answer. Every explanation names the tempting wrong option as well as the right one, because that is where marks are lost.

  1. According to Thomas Robert Malthus, which statement describes the relationship between population and food supply?

    1. Food grows geometrically, population arithmetically
    2. Both grow at the same rate in the long run
    3. Population grows geometrically, food arithmetically
    4. Population falls automatically whenever agricultural output rises
    Show answer

    Answer: C — Population grows geometrically, food arithmetically

    Malthus held that population grows in geometric progression (2, 4, 8, 16) while food production grows only in arithmetic progression (2, 4, 6, 8), so population tends to outrun subsistence. The reversed version is the classic slip. The idea that rising output automatically lowers population is the opposite of his fear, which was that any surplus would be swallowed by more people.
  2. Which of the following did Malthus regard as a "preventive check" on population growth?

    1. Postponing marriage and practising sexual abstinence
    2. Famines and epidemics
    3. Emigration to colonies
    4. Using new farm technology
    Show answer

    Answer: A — Postponing marriage and practising sexual abstinence

    Preventive checks are the ones people adopt to lower the birth rate — postponing marriage and practising sexual abstinence or celibacy. Famines and epidemics are the trap: Malthus called them positive checks, because they act by raising the death rate. New farm technology is what his critics pointed to when his predictions failed, not one of his checks.
  3. In the theory of demographic transition, the "population explosion" occurs in:

    1. The first stage, as both rates are high
    2. The final stage, as both rates are low
    3. The transitional stage, as birth rates rise sharply
    4. The transitional stage, as death rates fall while birth rates stay high
    Show answer

    Answer: D — The transitional stage, as death rates fall while birth rates stay high

    The explosion happens in the transitional stage because death rates fall quickly with better disease control and nutrition, while birth rates, tied to slow-changing social practices, stay high. The tempting variant names the right stage for the wrong reason: birth rates do not rise sharply; the gap opens because deaths fall first.
  4. Match the measure with its definition.
    A. Infant mortality rate B. Maternal mortality rate C. Sex ratio (India) D. Fertility rate
    1. Live births per 1,000 women aged 15–49
    2. Deaths of babies under one year per 1,000 live births
    3. Females per 1,000 males
    4. Women dying in childbirth per 1,00,000 live births

    1. A-4, B-2, C-3, D-1
    2. A-2, B-4, C-3, D-1
    3. A-2, B-4, C-1, D-3
    4. A-1, B-4, C-3, D-2
    Show answer

    Answer: B — A-2, B-4, C-3, D-1

    Infant mortality counts deaths before age one per 1,000 live births; maternal mortality counts women dying in childbirth per 1,00,000 live births; India states the sex ratio as females per 1,000 males; and the fertility rate is births per 1,000 women of child-bearing age. Swapping the infant and maternal denominators is the most common error, which is why one distractor reverses exactly that pair.
  5. Assertion (A): A rising share of working-age people in India's population can be an economic advantage. Reason (R): The demographic dividend is realised automatically, whatever the levels of education and employment.

    1. Both A and R are true, and R is the correct explanation of A
    2. Both A and R are true, but R is not the correct explanation of A
    3. A is true, but R is false
    4. A is false, but R is true
    Show answer

    Answer: C — A is true, but R is false

    A falling dependency ratio can be an advantage, so A is true. But the dividend is not automatic: it depends on the additional workers being educated and finding productive employment, and without that a large young population becomes a burden. R is therefore false, and the word "automatically" is the trap.
  6. India's population declined during one census decade of the twentieth century, mainly because of the influenza epidemic of 1918–19. That decade was:

    1. 1911–1921
    2. 1921–1931
    3. 1941–1951
    4. 1951–1961
    Show answer

    Answer: A — 1911–1921

    The census of 1921 recorded a smaller population than that of 1911, the influenza epidemic of 1918–19 being the main cause. After 1921 the death rate fell steadily and growth resumed. The 1941–51 decade is tempting because it included famine and Partition, but the population still grew over that decade.
  7. Consider the following statements about India's sex ratio:
    1. Because women biologically tend to have a survival advantage, a falling sex ratio points to social causes.
    2. The lowest child sex ratios are found only in the poorest regions of the country.
    Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

    1. Both 1 and 2
    2. 1 only
    3. 2 only
    4. Neither 1 nor 2
    Show answer

    Answer: B — 1 only

    Since biology slightly favours female survival, a sex ratio that falls below parity reflects son preference, neglect of girls and sex-selective abortion, so statement 1 is correct. Statement 2 is wrong: the book notes that some of the lowest child sex ratios are in relatively prosperous regions, which is exactly why poverty alone cannot explain the problem.
  8. After the coercive sterilisation drive of the Emergency (1975–76), India's National Family Planning Programme was renamed the:

    1. National Sterilisation Programme
    2. National Population Control Mission
    3. Small Family Incentive Scheme
    4. National Family Welfare Programme
    Show answer

    Answer: D — National Family Welfare Programme

    The programme, begun in 1952, was discredited by the coercion of the Emergency and was renamed the National Family Welfare Programme, with a stress on voluntary methods and maternal and child health. A name built around "control" or "sterilisation" would describe exactly the approach the renaming was meant to leave behind.