Statistics and Basic Probability
Mean: the balancing point
The arithmetic mean is the sum of observations divided by their number: mean = Σx / n. With frequencies it is Σfx / Σf. For grouped data replace x by the class mark. The mean is the balancing point of the data: the deviations of the observations from the mean add up to zero.
Worked example (grouped). Classes 0 to 10, 10 to 20, 20 to 30, 30 to 40, 40 to 50 have frequencies 5, 8, 10, 12, 5. Class marks are 5, 15, 25, 35, 45. Σf = 40. Σfx = 25 + 120 + 250 + 420 + 225 = 1040. Mean = 1040 / 40 = 26.
- Combined mean: (n₁m₁ + n₂m₂) / (n₁ + n₂). 20 students with mean 60 and 30 students with mean 70 give (1200 + 2100) / 50 = 66, not 65.
- Changing one value: the total changes by the difference. Mean of 10 numbers is 15; a 12 is replaced by 22, the total rises by 10, so the new mean is 16.
- Shift and scale: adding k to every observation adds k to the mean; multiplying every observation by k multiplies the mean by k.
- Mean of the first n natural numbers is (n + 1) / 2; of the first n even numbers is n + 1.
Median and mode
The median is the middle value after arranging the data in order. For n observations: if n is odd it is the ((n + 1) / 2)-th value; if n is even it is the average of the (n / 2)-th and (n / 2 + 1)-th values. Always sort first. For 9, 3, 15, 7, 11, 5 the sorted list is 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 15 and the median is (7 + 9) / 2 = 8. The mode is the value that occurs most often; 3, 5, 5, 7, 8, 5, 9 has mode 5. A data set can have no mode or more than one.
Grouped median: median = l + ((n / 2 − cf) / f) × h, where l is the lower limit of the median class (the class containing the (n / 2)-th observation), cf the cumulative frequency of the class before it, f its frequency and h its width. For the table above (frequencies 5, 8, 10, 12, 5): n = 40, n / 2 = 20; cumulative frequencies 5, 13, 23, 35, 40, so the median class is 20 to 30 with cf = 13, f = 10. Median = 20 + (7 / 10) × 10 = 27.
Grouped mode: mode = l + ((f₁ − f₀) / (2f₁ − f₀ − f₂)) × h, where the modal class has the highest frequency f₁, with f₀ before it and f₂ after it. Classes 0 to 10, 10 to 20, 20 to 30, 30 to 40 with frequencies 3, 5, 8, 5: modal class 20 to 30, f₁ = 8, f₀ = 5, f₂ = 5. Mode = 20 + (3 / 6) × 10 = 25.
Measures of spread: range, mean deviation, variance, SD
Two sets can share a mean and still differ in how scattered they are. Range = largest − smallest (for 12, 7, 25, 3, 18 it is 25 − 3 = 22). Mean deviation about the mean = Σ|x − mean| / n. Variance σ² = Σ(x − mean)² / n = Σx² / n − (mean)². Standard deviation σ = √variance, in the same unit as the data. The tables here treat the data as a whole population, so divide by n.
Worked example. Data 2, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 7, 9. n = 8, sum 40, mean 5. Deviations −3, −1, −1, −1, 0, 0, 2, 4. Mean deviation = (3 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 0 + 0 + 2 + 4) / 8 = 12 / 8 = 1.5. Squares 9, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 4, 16 add to 32, so variance = 32 / 8 = 4 and SD = 2. Check by the shortcut: Σx² = 4 + 48 + 50 + 49 + 81 = 232; 232 / 8 − 25 = 29 − 25 = 4.
| Change to every observation | Mean | Range, mean deviation, SD | Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Add k | + k | unchanged | unchanged |
| Multiply by k | × k | × |k| | × k² |
Probability of simple events
Probability of an event E = (number of favourable outcomes) / (total equally likely outcomes). It lies from 0 (impossible) to 1 (certain). The complement has probability P(not E) = 1 − P(E). Bag with 5 red, 3 blue, 2 green balls: P(blue) = 3 / 10 and P(not red) = 1 − 5 / 10 = 1 / 2.
| Experiment | Total outcomes | Event and probability |
|---|---|---|
| One die | 6 | prime (2, 3, 5): 3/6 = 1/2 |
| Two dice | 36 | sum 7: 6/36 = 1/6; sum 8: 5/36 |
| Three coins | 8 | exactly two heads (HHT, HTH, THH): 3/8 |
| Pack of 52 cards | 52 | king: 4/52 = 1/13; red face card: 6/52 = 3/26 |
A pack has 4 suits of 13 cards, 26 red and 26 black cards, and 12 face cards (king, queen, jack in each suit). Two rules combine events: for mutually exclusive events P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B); in general P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A and B). For independent events P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B). If P(A) = 1/2 and P(B) = 1/3 are independent, P(both) = 1/6 and P(at least one) = 1 − (1/2)(2/3) = 2/3. Without replacement the second draw changes: two aces from a pack = 4/52 × 3/51 = 1/221.
Choosing the measure and avoiding traps
- Mean uses every value and is pulled by extreme values; use it for fair totals.
- Median is not disturbed by extreme values; use it for skewed data such as salaries.
- Mode is the most common value; the only average that also works for categories such as the commonest shoe size.
- Range, mean deviation, variance and SD are measures of dispersion; mean, median and mode are measures of central tendency.
Speed plan: for mean, look for a round assumed mean; for median, sort and count before any formula; for spread, test which of range, mean deviation or SD the stem names; for probability, write favourable over total and simplify last.
Key takeaways
- Mean = Σfx / Σf (class marks for grouped data); the deviations from the mean add to zero, and combined mean = (n₁m₁ + n₂m₂) / (n₁ + n₂).
- Median: sort first, middle value (average of two middle values for even n); grouped median = l + ((n/2 − cf)/f) × h.
- Grouped mode = l + ((f₁ − f₀)/(2f₁ − f₀ − f₂)) × h; empirical relation: mode = 3 median − 2 mean.
- Variance = Σx²/n − mean²; SD = √variance. Adding k changes only the mean; multiplying by k multiplies SD by |k| and variance by k².
- Probability = favourable / total, between 0 and 1; P(not E) = 1 − P(E); add for exclusive 'or', multiply for independent 'and'.
- Two dice: 36 outcomes, sum 7 has 6 ways; pack of 52 has 26 red cards, 12 face cards and 4 of each rank.
Practice questions (18)
Attempt each one before opening the answer. Every explanation names the tempting wrong option as well as the right one, because that is where marks are lost.
What is the mean of 12, 15, 18, 20 and 25?
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Answer: B — 18
The sum is 12 + 15 + 18 + 20 + 25 = 90 and 90 / 5 = 18. The value 20 is the second-largest observation, not the mean, and 19 comes from a miscount of the total.What is the median of 9, 3, 15, 7, 11 and 5?
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Answer: D — 8
Sorted the data is 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 15; with six values the median is the average of the 3rd and 4th, (7 + 9) / 2 = 8. Taking 7 or 9 alone ignores the even count, and reading the unsorted middle gives a wrong pair.Which value is the mode of 3, 5, 5, 7, 8, 5, 9?
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Answer: A — 5
The mode is the most frequent value, and 5 appears three times while every other value appears once. The value 6 is the mean of the list and 7 is merely the middle entry of the unsorted list; neither is the most frequent value, which tempts candidates who mix up the three averages.The mean marks of 20 students is 60 and of another 30 students is 70. What is the mean marks of all 50 students?
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Answer: C — 66
Total marks are 20 × 60 + 30 × 70 = 1200 + 2100 = 3300 and 3300 / 50 = 66. The simple average of 60 and 70, which is 65, ignores that the larger group has more weight.Classes 0 to 10, 10 to 20, 20 to 30, 30 to 40, 40 to 50 have frequencies 5, 8, 10, 12 and 5. What is the mean using class marks?
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Answer: A — 26
Σfx = 5 × 5 + 8 × 15 + 10 × 25 + 12 × 35 + 5 × 45 = 1040 and Σf = 40, so the mean is 26. The middle class mark 25 is not the mean, and 27 is the median of the same table, not the mean.Classes 0 to 10, 10 to 20, 20 to 30, 30 to 40 and 40 to 50 have frequencies 5, 8, 10, 12 and 5. What is the median of the grouped data?
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Answer: D — 27
n = 40 and n / 2 = 20; the cumulative frequencies 5, 13, 23 make 20 to 30 the median class with cf = 13 and f = 10, so median = 20 + (7 / 10) × 10 = 27. The value 26 is the mean, not the median.Classes 0 to 10, 10 to 20, 20 to 30, 30 to 40 have frequencies 3, 5, 8 and 5. What is the mode of the grouped data?
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Answer: C — 25
The modal class is 20 to 30 with f₁ = 8, f₀ = 5, f₂ = 5, so mode = 20 + (8 − 5) / (16 − 5 − 5) × 10 = 25. The neighbours are equal, so the mode sits at the class mark 25; the class mark of the next class, 35, is not the answer either.For a moderately skewed distribution the mean is 24 and the median is 25. Using the empirical relation, what is the approximate mode?
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Answer: B — 27
Mode ≈ 3 × median − 2 × mean = 75 − 48 = 27. The value 22 results from swapping the multipliers (3 × mean − 2 × median = 72 − 50 = 22), which is the common slip.Which of the following is NOT a measure of dispersion?
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Answer: A — Median
Range, variance and mean deviation all describe how scattered the data are. The median is a measure of central tendency that locates the middle of the data.The data 2, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 7, 9 are given. What is their standard deviation?
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Answer: D — 2
The mean is 5 and the squared deviations add to 32, so variance = 32 / 8 = 4 and SD = √4 = 2. The value 4 is the variance and 1.5 is the mean deviation, both different measures.Observations x have mean 20 and standard deviation 4. Each is changed to y = 3x + 5. What are the mean and the SD of y?
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Answer: B — Mean 65, SD 12
The mean becomes 3 × 20 + 5 = 65 and the SD becomes 3 × 4 = 12, because adding 5 never changes the spread. Adding 5 to the SD (17) is the usual error; 144 is the variance of y (9 × 16), not its SD.What is the variance of the first seven natural numbers 1, 2, ..., 7?
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Answer: A — 4
The variance of 1 to n is (n² − 1) / 12 = 48 / 12 = 4. The value 2 is the standard deviation, not the variance, and 3.5 is the mean of the numbers.Judge these statements. P: the sum of deviations of observations from their mean is zero. Q: the median is disturbed by extreme values as much as the mean. R: adding the same constant to every observation changes the standard deviation. S: doubling every observation doubles the variance. Which are correct?
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Answer: C — P only
Only P is true. Q is false because the median ignores extreme values; R is false because a shift leaves spread unchanged; S is false because doubling quadruples the variance, which makes P and S tempting but wrong.A fair die is thrown once. What is the probability that the number is a prime?
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Answer: D — 1/2
The primes on a die are 2, 3 and 5, so the probability is 3 / 6 = 1 / 2. The number 1 is not prime, so counting four primes (2/3) is wrong.What is the probability of drawing a king from a well-shuffled pack of 52 playing cards?
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Answer: A — 1/13
There are 4 kings in 52 cards, so the probability is 4 / 52 = 1 / 13. The fraction 1/4 is the chance of a particular suit, not a particular rank.Two fair dice are thrown together. What is the probability that the sum of the numbers is 8?
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Answer: C — 5/36
Sum 8 occurs as (2,6), (3,5), (4,4), (5,3), (6,2): five of the 36 outcomes. The value 1/6 belongs to sum 7, which has six ways.A bag holds 5 red, 3 blue and 2 green balls. Two balls are drawn one after another without replacement. What is the probability that both are red?
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Answer: B — 2/9
The first is red with 5/10 and the second with 4/9, so the probability is 20 / 90 = 2 / 9. The value 1/4 results from replacing the ball (5/10 × 5/10), which does not match the stem.Events A and B are independent with P(A) = 1/2 and P(B) = 1/3. What is the probability that at least one of them happens?
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Answer: A — 2/3
P(at least one) = 1 − P(neither) = 1 − (1/2)(2/3) = 2/3. The sum 5/6 double counts the case in which both happen, which is exactly what the subtraction of the overlap 1/6 removes.